Section Items
Short Term Holding
Slightly Off Topic
Misc.

Share Trading - Some Real Life Numbers

If you had invested £5k in Barclays in 2002 and then reinvested dividends into new Barclays shares then the value of your investment is shown below.

I picked Barclays because they are a classic long term hold share and there is nothing particularly nasty about their history.

I have picked the start of 2002 as the starting date as the share price was not abnormally high or low and assumed an investment of £5K.

Since then you would have received £2,864 of dividends giving you a total investment of £7,862 and if it became necessary to sell today (Feb 2018) at 160p then you would receive £2,607 a loss of over £5,255.

It is unfair to just pick one date, so picking the best value over the last 6 years gives a 337p share price and a value of £5,200, still almost a 33% loss but at least the losses are only the dividends.

To get back to a break even point we need a share price of 501p, this is not unachievable, it was there during the peak of over inflated bank prices, but at the moment this would be a P/E ratio of something like 40:1

I do believe that the current share price is slightly low and looking through the numbers you can find start and end points (especially if you go forward in time) with smaller losses or some profits.

Given that most people start serious investing in their late 30s, 40 or early 50s this would be worrying to anyone who has gone for long term holdings and dividend reinvestment.

For the big funds this is less of a problem as they are able to ignore the bad years, but as a personal investor if you had to sell at any time over the last 6 years it would have been a disaster.

It is easy to deny that I have shown anything as you can always say that the starting point is biased to prove my point and that I have picked a share for the same reason.

But if you are going to say that about Barclays over 16 years.....?

What we seem to see is that the assumed safety net of the new shares bought with dividends protecting against share price fluctuation has not been realised, instead reinvesting the dividends into more shares has increased the losses as those shares were bought at very high prices.

You could of course have taken the dividends as cash and if had done this then you would be in a slight profit.

The Numbers For Barclays.

Dividend Graph

There is a table breaking this chart down further but these details can't be reasonably displayed on a screen of this size.
                                 Share             Dividend
Pot     Pot              Qty of  Price   Dividend  Amount Per  Dividend  New Shares
Cost    Value    Profit  Shares  Pence   Date      Share(p)    Amount(p) Bought
£4,998  £4,998            899     556				
£4,998  £3,811  -£1,187   899     424    Aug-02      6.35        5708      13
£5,055  £3,184  -£1,871   912     349    Feb-03     12.0        10949      31
£5,165  £4,322    -£842   944     458    Aug-03      7.05        6653      15
£5,231  £4,629    -£603   958     483    Feb-04     13.45       12889      27
£5,360  £5,112    -£248   985     519    Aug-04      8.25        8126      16
£5,441  £6,064     £623  1001     606    Feb-05     15.75       15760      26
£5,599  £6,037     £438  1027     588    Aug-05      9.2         9445      16
£5,693  £6,402     £709  1043     614    Mar-06     17.4        18143      30
£5,875  £6,809     £934  1072     635    Aug-06     10.5        11259      18
£5,987  £8,611   £2,623  1090     790    Mar-07     20.5        22344      28
£6,211  £6,833     £622  1118     611    Aug-07     11.5        12860      21
£6,339  £5,571    -£768  1139     489    Mar-08     22.5        25634      52
£6,596  £4,362  -£2,234  1192     366    Aug-07     11.5        13705      37
£6,733  £6,011    -£722  1229     489    Mar-08     22.5        27656      57
£7,009  £4,706  -£2,304  1286     366    Aug-08     11.5        14786      40
£7,157  £4,244  -£2,914  1326     320    Nov-09      1.0         1326       4
£7,170  £3,578  -£3,592  1330     269    Feb-10      1.5         1995       7
£7,190  £4,521  -£2,669  1338     338    May-10      1.0         1338       4
£7,204  £3,958  -£3,246  1342     295    Aug-10      1.0         1342       5
£7,217  £3,689  -£3,529  1346     274    Nov-10      1.0         1346       5
£7,231  £4,202  -£3,029  1351     311    Feb-11      2.5         3378      11
£7,264  £4,100  -£3,165  1362     301    May-11      1.0         1362       5
£7,278  £3,047  -£4,231  1366     223    Aug-11      1.0         1366       6
£7,292  £2,279  -£5,013  1373     166    Nov-11      1.0         1373       8
£7,305  £3,535  -£3,770  1381     256    Feb-12      3.0         4143      16
£7,347  £2,990  -£4,357  1397     214    May-12      1.0         1397       7
£7,361  £2,302  -£5,059  1404     164    Aug-12      1.0         1404       9
£7,375  £3,248  -£4,127  1412     230    Nov-12      1.0         1412       6
£7,389  £4,255  -£3,134  1418     300    Feb-13      3.5         4964      17
£7,439  £4,505  -£2,933  1435     314    May-13      1.0         1435       5
£7,453  £4,606  -£2,847  1439     320    Aug-13      1.0         1439       4
£7,467  £4,000  -£3,468  1444     277    Nov-13      1.0         1444       5
£7,482  £3,927  -£3,555  1449     271    Feb-14      3.5         5072      19
£7,533  £3,640  -£3,892  1468     248    May-14      1.0         1468       6
£7,547  £3,198  -£4,349  1474     217    Aug-14      1.0         1474       7
£7,562  £3,553  -£4,009  1481     240    Nov-14      1.0         1481       6
£7,577  £3,880  -£3,696  1487     261    Mar-15      3.5         5204      20
£7,629  £3,872  -£3,757  1507     257    May-15      1.0         1507       6
£7,644  £3,781  -£3,863  1513     250    Aug-15      1.0         1513       6
£7,659  £3,903  -£3,756  1519     257    Nov-15      1.0         1519       6
£7,674  £2,576  -£5,098  1524     169    Mar-16      3.5         5336      32
£7,728	£2,536	-£5,191	 1556	  163	 Aug-16	     1.0         1556	   10
£7,743	£2,943	-£4,800	 1566	  188	 Mar-17	     2.0         3131	   17
£7,774	£2,975	-£4,800	 1582	  188	 Aug-17	     1.0         1582	    8
£7,790	£3,261	-£4,529	 1591	  205	 Mar-18	     2.0         3181	   16
£7,822	£2,763	-£5,059	 1606	  172	 Aug-18	     2.5         4015	   23
£7,862	£2,607	-£5,255	 1630	  160	 Current